Upgrader
Trade a cheap skin for a shot at an expensive one. House edge 10%. Balance is stored in your browser only.
Upgrader: the skin-gambling original
You put up a skin (or coins) and pick a more expensive one. The site gives you a chance equal to your value ÷ target value × (1 − edge). Upgrading ◎10 into ◎20 on a 10% edge site gives a 45% chance — not 50%. Win and you hold the target; lose and your item is gone. Most sites cap the chance around 80–90% so you can never make it "safe".
Cost per attempt
Expected value of every upgrade is your item × 0.9, regardless of the target. A 1.5× "safe" upgrade and a 20× "moonshot" both cost you 10% of the stake on average; the 20× just does it in a way where you lose 95.5% of attempts. Chaining upgrades compounds the edge: three successive 2× steps to reach 8× give you 0.45³ = 9.1% instead of the 11.25% a single 8× attempt would.
Check any real upgrade with the Upgrader calculator before you commit a skin.
How is upgrade chance calculated?
(your value ÷ target value) × (1 − house edge). With a 10% edge, a 2× upgrade has a 45% chance.
Is it better to upgrade in small steps or one big jump?
One jump. Each step takes its own 10%, so chaining three 2× upgrades (9.1%) is worse than one 8× (11.25%).
What happens to my skin if I lose?
On real sites it's gone — added to the site's inventory. Here you lose fake coins.
Does CSGORoll have an Upgrader?
Yes, with a similar chance formula. Use code GETBOX there for a 10% bonus and 3 free cases.
Upgrader — four things worth knowing
- Chance = your value ÷ target × (1 − edge). At 10% edge, 2× is 45%, not 50%.
- One jump always beats chaining: 8× in one shot (11.25%) beats three 2× steps (9.1%).
- The cap (80–90%) exists so 'safe' upgrades still pay the edge. Ten 90% upgrades in a row succeed 35% of the time.
- Never upgrade a skin you'd be upset to lose. On a failure it is gone, not 'converted'.
On the real sites
CSGORoll's Upgrader is the most used implementation. The chance formula is the same; check the cap and the exact edge in the panel before committing a real skin. Codes: CSGORoll GETBOX, CSGOEmpire case2go, 500 CSMAX, Duel MAXRB, Thrill maxrakeback.
How Upgrader compares
| Game | House edge | Per ◎1,000 wagered | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dice | 1% | ◎10 | You choose |
| Crash | 1% | ◎10 | You choose (target) |
| Plinko | 1% | ◎10 | Low → extreme |
| Roll | 6.67% | ◎67 | Medium (green: high) |
| Upgrader | ~10% | ◎100 | Depends on multiplier |
| Case opening | 8–15% | ◎80–150 | High |
Edge = expected loss per coin wagered. Variance describes the ride, not the destination.
Other games
Glossary
- House edge
- The share of every wager the operator keeps over the long run. 1% edge = ◎10 expected loss per ◎1,000 wagered.
- RTP
- Return to player — the mirror of house edge. 90% RTP on a case means a 10% edge.
- Expected value (EV)
- What a bet is worth on average: sum of (payout × probability). Always below the stake on a real site.
- Variance
- How much results swing around the average. High variance = long dead runs, rare big hits.
- Provably fair
- A seed-hash system letting you verify a result was fixed before your bet. Proves honesty, not good odds.
- Rakeback
- A percentage of the house edge you generate, returned regardless of win or loss.