Case Opening EV Calculator
Expected value, RTP and profit chance for any case. Updates live as you type.
| Item | Price | Odds % |
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| Item | Odds | 1 in | EV share | Profit? |
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How to read a case
Copy the item list from any case page on CSGORoll, CSGOEmpire or 500.casino — every site publishes per-item odds — and paste the prices and percentages here. The calculator returns the expected value (what an open is worth on average), the RTP (EV ÷ price) and the chance of profit (odds of pulling something worth more than you paid).
What the numbers usually look like
Skin-site cases typically sit at 85–92% RTP, meaning an 8–15% house edge — much higher than Dice or Crash at 1%. Chance of profit is usually 5–20%. A case where 90% of the EV comes from one 1% item is a lottery ticket wearing a costume: you will lose almost every time and the average is held up by an outcome you'll probably never see.
Free cases with a promo code
The only case with a positive EV is one you didn't pay for. CSGORoll code GETBOX gives three free cases; CSGOEmpire code case2go gives a welcome case worth up to $1,500. Run those through here too — a free case still has a distribution, and knowing it stops you re-buying the same case at full price afterwards.
What is a good RTP for a case?
Anything above 90% is on the generous end for skin sites; 85–90% is typical. Compare with 99% on Dice or Crash.
Why doesn't my odds total show 100%?
You've typed odds that don't sum to 100. Press 'Normalise' to scale them, or check the case page — some sites list odds per 1,000 or per 10,000.
Does EV mean I'll get that back?
Only on average over thousands of opens. On a single open you almost always get the cheap items; the EV is propped up by the rare ones.
Can I use this for Case Battles?
Yes — a battle is just the same case opened by several players. The EV per case is unchanged; the battle only redistributes who ends up with the items.
Worked example: the Dust Crate
Price ◎27.47. Six items: 40% at ◎0.10, 25% at ◎0.45, 18% at ◎6.50, 10% at ◎28, 6% at ◎110, 1% at ◎1,400. EV = 0.04 + 0.11 + 1.17 + 2.80 + 6.60 + 14.00 = ◎24.72 → RTP 90%, edge 10%. Only the last three items (17% combined) are worth more than the case; the Karambit alone supplies 57% of the EV at a 1-in-100 chance. Open 100 of these and you expect to spend ◎2,747 and get back ◎2,472.
Common mistakes
- Typing odds per 1,000 or 10,000 when the site lists them that way — normalise to 100%.
- Using the site's item prices instead of the price you can actually sell at (marketplace bid).
- Counting a 'profit chance' of 17% as 'I win 17% of the time' — most of those wins are small.
Other calculators
Try the maths live
Every number here can be tested with fake coins: case opening, Roll, Upgrader, Crash.
- House edge
- The share of every wager the operator keeps over the long run. 1% edge = ◎10 expected loss per ◎1,000 wagered.
- RTP
- Return to player — the mirror of house edge. 90% RTP on a case means a 10% edge.
- Expected value (EV)
- What a bet is worth on average: sum of (payout × probability). Always below the stake on a real site.
- Variance
- How much results swing around the average. High variance = long dead runs, rare big hits.
- Provably fair
- A seed-hash system letting you verify a result was fixed before your bet. Proves honesty, not good odds.