CS2 Pick'Em Simulator & Odds Calculator
Sticker odds for your Major Pick'Em: expected points, 5+ chance, per-team 3-0 / advance / 0-3 probabilities. Updates live as you type.
| # | Team | Rating |
|---|
Ratings drive win probability: a 0.10 gap ≈ 57/43 in a Bo1, 0.30 ≈ 70/30. Match-ups are re-seeded each Swiss round, deciders are Bo3.
| Points | Probability | Distribution |
|---|---|---|
| Make your picks, then press Calculate sticker odds. | ||
| Team | P(3-0) | P(advance) | P(0-3) |
|---|
How the CS2 Major Pick'Em is scored
For each Swiss stage you pick one team to go 3-0, one team to go 0-3, and seven teams to advance with three wins. Each correct pick is one point, nine is the maximum, and five points earns the stage's sticker (all three stages correct earns the diamond coin). It is nine picks against a 16-team Swiss bracket where a single round-one upset re-seeds everything after it.
What this calculator does
Sixteen teams carry a rating you can edit in the panel — paste this Major's HLTV form if you want current odds. Every match is a Bo1 unless it is an elimination or advancement match, which is a Bo3, the Swiss format used since Copenhagen 2024. Win probability comes from the rating gap. Calculate sticker odds plays thousands of Majors with your picks and reports the expected score, the chance of 5+ points and how often every team goes 3-0, advances or goes 0-3. Simulate one Swiss stage plays a single Major and shows the match log.
Why 3-0 is the hardest pick
Even the best team in the bracket goes 3-0 only around a quarter of the time: three consecutive wins against opponents who also keep winning. Advance picks on the top seven land roughly two times in three — "Auto-pick by odds" builds exactly that conservative sticker, and the score distribution shows why a sensible sticker still misses 5 points more often than you'd think.
Is this connected to the real Pick'Em?
No. It's a free odds calculator for the Swiss format with editable team ratings. Nothing here touches your Steam account or the in-game Pick'Em.
How are match results decided?
From the rating gap: a 0.10 rating difference is roughly a 57/43 Bo1, 0.30 about 70/30. Elimination and advancement matches are simulated as best-of-three of that probability.
What score do I need for the sticker?
Five correct picks out of nine. With sensible picks the expected score is around 5, and the sticker chance usually lands between 45% and 70% depending on how many upsets you pick and how close the team ratings are.
How many simulations should I run?
5,000 is enough for one-decimal percentages. Use 20,000 when comparing two stickers that differ by a single pick.
Can I use real team ratings?
Yes — edit the names and ratings in the panel. A rating is a strength on a 0–1 scale; only the gaps between teams matter.
Does this cost anything?
No — no coins, no stake. The Pick'Em is the one CS2 'bet' with a 0% house edge.
Worked example: the conservative sticker
Favourite (rating 1.00) picked 3-0, the 16th seed (0.48) picked 0-3, seeds 2–8 picked to advance. Over 5,000 simulated Swiss stages the 3-0 pick lands about 30% of the time, the 0-3 pick about 30%, and each advance pick between 57% and 85%. Expected score ≈ 5.2 points; the chance of 5 or more — the sticker — is roughly 70% with the default ratings. A perfect 9/9 comes up around 1% of the time, which is why nobody you know has one. Tighten the ratings (real Majors are closer than the defaults) and every number drops.
Common mistakes
- Spending the 3-0 pick on a mid-seed 'dark horse' — even the favourite only manages it one time in four.
- Picking a strong team 0-3 because of a bad opening map: the Bo3 deciders favour the better team.
- Treating a single simulation as the answer. Run thousands; the distribution is the point.
Other calculators
Try the maths live
Every number here can be tested with fake coins: case opening, Roll, Upgrader, Crash.
- House edge
- The share of every wager the operator keeps over the long run. 1% edge = ◎10 expected loss per ◎1,000 wagered.
- RTP
- Return to player — the mirror of house edge. 90% RTP on a case means a 10% edge.
- Expected value (EV)
- What a bet is worth on average: sum of (payout × probability). Always below the stake on a real site.
- Variance
- How much results swing around the average. High variance = long dead runs, rare big hits.
- Provably fair
- A seed-hash system letting you verify a result was fixed before your bet. Proves honesty, not good odds.