CS2 Pick'Em Simulator
Pick the Major bracket, simulate every match, score your sticker. House edge 0%. Rounds run on their own; place a bet to join the next one. Balance is stored in your browser only.
Click a team once = advance pick. Use the 3-0 / 0-3 buttons on the team card for the special picks. Max 9 points.
| Time | Bet | Result | Payout | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rounds yet — history is stored in your browser only. | ||||
How the CS2 Major Pick'Em works
For each Swiss stage you pick one team to go 3-0, one team to go 0-3, and seven teams to advance with three wins. Each correct pick is one point; five points earns the stage's sticker and, across all stages, the diamond coin. That is nine picks against a 16-team Swiss bracket where a single upset in round one re-seeds everything after it.
What this simulator does
Sixteen teams carry a rating (edit them in the code if you want this season's form). Each match is a Bo1 unless it's an elimination or advancement match, which is a Bo3 — exactly the Swiss format used since Copenhagen 2024. Win probability comes from the rating gap. Simulate Swiss stage plays one Major and scores your picks. Run 1,000 Majors plays a thousand and reports how often every team goes 3-0, advances or goes 0-3 — which is what you need to know before spending the picks.
Why 3-0 is the hardest pick
Even the best team in the bracket goes 3-0 only around a quarter of the time: three consecutive wins against opponents who also keep winning. Advance picks on the top seven are far more reliable — the simulator's "Auto-pick by odds" builds exactly that conservative sticker.
Is this connected to the real Pick'Em?
No. It's a free simulator of the Swiss format with editable team ratings. Nothing here touches your Steam account or the in-game Pick'Em.
How are match results decided?
From the rating gap: a 0.10 rating difference is roughly a 60/40 match. Bo3 deciders are simulated as best-of-three of that probability.
What score do I need?
Five correct picks earns the stage sticker. The average with sensible picks is around 4–5, so it is meant to be hard.
Can I use real team ratings?
Yes — the TEAMS array at the top of the page script holds name and rating; replace them with the current HLTV-style ranking.
Does this cost anything?
No — no coins, no stake. The Pick'Em is the one CS2 'bet' with a 0% house edge.
CS2 Pick'Em Simulator — four things worth knowing
- A 3-0 pick on the favourite lands a bit over one time in four; advance picks on the top seven land between three and four times in five.
- Upsets in round one re-seed everything — a bracket sim with 1,000 runs tells you more than any single prediction.
- Five correct picks out of nine earns the sticker; the average sensible sticker scores 4–5.
- The Pick'Em is the only CS2 wager with no house edge — enjoy it, and notice how different it feels from Roll.
On the real sites
The real Pick'Em runs inside CS2 during each Major with a viewer pass. Nothing is wagered; the prize is a sticker and a coin. Skin sites like CSGORoll and CSGOEmpire run separate match betting on the same games — that does carry an edge. Codes: CSGORoll GETBOX, CSGOEmpire case2go, CSGO500 CSMAX, CSGOBig headshot, Gamdom 15BOOST, Stake GETRAKEBACK, CSGOFast GETCASE.
How CS2 Pick'Em Simulator compares
| Game | House edge | Per ◎1,000 wagered | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dice | 1% | ◎10 | You choose |
| Crash | 1% | ◎10 | You choose (target) |
| Plinko | 1% | ◎10 | Low → extreme |
| Roll | 6.67% | ◎67 | Medium (green: high) |
| Upgrader | ~10% | ◎100 | Depends on multiplier |
| Case opening | 8–15% | ◎80–150 | High |
| Pick'Em | 0% | ◎0 | No stake at all |
Edge = expected loss per coin wagered. Variance describes the ride, not the destination.
Other games
Glossary
- House edge
- The share of every wager the operator keeps over the long run. 1% edge = ◎10 expected loss per ◎1,000 wagered.
- RTP
- Return to player — the mirror of house edge. 90% RTP on a case means a 10% edge.
- Expected value (EV)
- What a bet is worth on average: sum of (payout × probability). Always below the stake on a real site.
- Variance
- How much results swing around the average. High variance = long dead runs, rare big hits.
- Provably fair
- A seed-hash system letting you verify a result was fixed before your bet. Proves honesty, not good odds.
- Rakeback
- A percentage of the house edge you generate, returned regardless of win or loss.
The maths behind this, written out
The 3-0 pick is the one everyone gets wrong. Simulating the Swiss stage ten thousand times says take the second favour…
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